I have been using Brisnet par numbers, found on the top right corner of the pp’s, to make pace numbers for the individual contenders. These are the steps I use:
1. List of contenders … Using the Prime Power numbers, select the horses with ratings within 5 points of the top number.
2. I select a pace line from the contender’s last three races. This is tricky but should be a pace line that would represent what the contender will run in the upcoming race.
3. I next look at the running style of the contender and compare the internal fractions with the par numbers of the upcoming race. The best source for running style is found at Paceappraiser.com. Paceappraiser also help with the selection of the best pace line to use in the analysis.
4. I insist that the contender’s pace number is within 5 lengths (10 points) of par to make the cut and given a final minimum odds to bet. The best bet is found with a horse that runs faster than par.
So here is an example to help walk through the steps:
Par numbers of upcoming race:
89 90 89 90
Contender’s running style is E/P with the pace numbers of the selected race as follows;
91 88 77 82
I combine the first two Brisnet par numbers – 89+90 = 179
The contender’s selected pace line for (E/P) – 91+88 = 179
so this horse would be even with par and qualify.
Let’s do another example:
Contender’s running style is sustained (P/C or C)
I combine the last two Brisnet par numbers – 89+90 = 179
The contender’s selected pace line for( P/C ) – 77+82 =159
This horse would NOT qualify because the total rating is 20 points (10 lengths) below par.
For running styles listed by Paceappraiser – E – E/P – P – P/C – C
The breakdowns for the Brisnet par numbers are as follow:
E – use just the first par number listed. In this case 89. The early running style needs only be within 5 points because we are not combining two numbers.
E/P – combine the first two numbers as illustrated above.
P – combine the second and third par numbers for comparison.
P/C – combine the last two numbers as illustrated above.
C – also a closer and would combine the last two numbers just as done with P/C.
As I mentioned the most powerful use of this method is when a horse exceeds the par numbers. This means that the horse ran faster than par and is an excellent bet in the race one is considering especially if the overall pace picture is fast ie; speed laden which would favor closers or lacking early speed which would favor early and early pressing style types.